Monday, September 24, 2007

'Heinlein was wrong - there is such a thing as a free lunch'. Re: the US sub-prime mortgage bailout

Picture this...you are a 30 yr old renter in a suburb in Midwestern US. You have a family, a new job with a not-so-steady salary, old parents on Medicare (US govt. healthcare for seniors) but with increasingly unmanageable healthcare costs, and you an barely make ends meet. However, you believe in the American dream...you believe that, eventually, you will be able to buy a house.
Enter this nice broker from one of the biggest morgage lenders in the country. She offers you a house (your own!), with no credit check, no income verification, no down payment, and nominal payments for the next year. Never mind that little 'adjustable' clause, where your payments increase exponentially after that. Never mind that a house like this is way beyond what you can afford, never mind if a 3rd grader could tell you that the math doesn't make sense. Hey, prices are going up, you can always sell the house, right?
So you take the mortgage, and enter your own house. The mortgage broker makes a ton of money on commissions, the lender makes a ton of money on fees. As for the money the lender gave you, it just uses a bank and a friendly credit rating agency to package it into investment grade securities (suddenly, Wall St trusts you more than the Govt. of India or Brazil). They sell it to the pension fund that holds your risk-averse neighbor' retirement money. The bank, the agency, the lender all make a ton of money. Everyone's happy, most of all you, right?
Right, till you realize that there are such things are taxes and maintenance costs, which the broker glossed over when she sold you the loan. Suddenly its tough for you to find work, and you can barely manage to pay the low initial interest payments. Just when you think things cant get any worse, the 'adjustable' clause kicks in, and you are left with monthly payments bigger than your current income. You default, and you go to the nearest bar, and the nearest foreclosure lawyer for sustenance. Meanwhile each default of yours is another nail in the coffin of that sexy investment grade security your mortgage had become, and your lender, bank and your neighbour's pension fund are all looking at losses. Things look really bad, right?
Wrong. for here's where the fun begins. Papa Govt., aided by some scathing New York Times editorials, orders a stay on foreclosures, and directs lenders to give you the option of a kinder mortgage rate, which you can pay at your leisure. You can even take your sweet time with the payments, no one will kick you out of your house. Meanwhile, Santa Bernanke decreases interest rates, and allows banks to borrow at a lower rate and keep their crap mortgage securities till the next boom. This way everyone's happy.
Everyone, that is, except that poor pension fund, which invests only in investment grade securities. It cannot unload its securities, the banks will not give it a loan, and its value halves, along with the value of your neighbor's nest egg. So Heinlein was right after all, there IS no such thing as a free lunch for America. Contrary to what the public believes, the greedy get rich and the risk-averse suffer not in a free-market economy, but in a turncoat economy thats capitalist when the goings good and that protects you from any loss when the going's bad.
I guess Indians would get deja vu on reading this, having witnessed countless UTIs and co-operative bank bailouts ourselves...

3 comments:

Alam said...

Dude well written ... shows your understanding of the issue ...I take back my ICMT comments ...

Point two - Now that you are a blogger ... you need to be fair to the people who write comments on your blog ... you need to write replies (on the blog) once in a while

... This is me on my preachy best (cause i have been shying away from writing replies on my blog) ....

FYI - even I have come out of the ICMT setback and made myself financially semi-literate

AID New York said...

reply to alam - abe...subah subah (meri subah, atleast) gaali mat maar...as it is my stomach is still in a tender state from Saturday's binge...i don't know how the f@$k to reply to a comment on my blog...otherwise i wud have left some more choice dilli phrases to show my love...have to figure out how to reply to a comment first...

Alam said...

seems like you have figured out ....